Whether the furniture market can pick up and comprehensively analyze the reshuffle is not necessarily a good thing.

[Nanning decoration case library building materials furniture library] Whether the furniture market can be warmed up and comprehensive analysis of shuffling may not be a good thing

In the past two years, the furniture market has been called “cold winter”. As the housing market has gradually warmed up, most furniture industry and media have said that the furniture market is picking up and the winter is about to pass. However, whether the cold is still the same, or gradually warming up, everyone has a word. According to the data of the survey and analysis, 23.91% of the dealers said that they were cold, 31.52% of the dealers thought that they would pick up, and the remaining 44.57% of the dealers said that they could not judge.

Warmer:

——Support reason: the situation of the big environment is getting better

As early as the second Asia-Pacific Economic Forum in September 2011, domestic pan-home industry experts and industry leaders discussed the topic of “How to spend the winter in the home industry for the next year and a half”. At the forum, Luo Zheng, an industry expert and chairman of Asia-Pacific Media, pointed out that the “severe winter” of the pan-home industry will last for about one and a half years, and the recovery time is likely to be in the spring of 2013.

1. The domestic macroeconomic situation is improving

Since October 2012, the Chinese economy has shown more signs of recovery. In October and November, HSBC China's manufacturing PMI data is very satisfactory. Some economists have also raised their forecasts for China's economic growth next year.

Lu Ting, chief economist and registered financial analyst of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Greater China, said: "If external demand is stable, we believe that it is not difficult for China to achieve the 7.5% growth target in 2013. The current market consensus Yes, China's GDP growth in 2013 will be between 7.9% and 8.0%, while our forecast is 8.1%."

The Economic Outlook report released by the Paris-based OECD on November 27, 2012 pointed out that the expanding monetary and fiscal policies of emerging market countries offset the shrinking of external demand. It is expected that China’s economic growth rate in the next two years will be It is 8.5% and 8.9%. The macro economy is improving and the furniture industry will benefit from it.

2. The real estate market is starting to pick up

The furniture industry is closely related to the real estate industry. The furniture market has entered a “cold winter” beginning with the state's policy regulation of the real estate market. But the state's regulation of real estate is to suppress housing prices, rather than suppressing the amount of housing, is to suppress speculation, rather than suppress investment. Now, the effect of regulation has already appeared, the price increase has stabilized, some speculators have been “escaped” from the market, rigid demand has begun to translate into buying behavior, and the real estate market has begun to pick up. This can be seen first from the level of activity in the land market.

Under the background of the restricted purchase of commercial housing, the construction of affordable housing has become an important factor in stimulating furniture consumption in the future. Following the completion of the task of starting construction of 7 million sets of affordable housing last year, the task of building a nationwide urban security housing project in 2013 was to build 4.6 million units and 6 million new units. Although the number of new constructions seems to have decreased, the actual value of actual construction and completion is increasing, and the amount of tasks is still large. According to estimates by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the actual amount of construction under construction in 2012 is about 18 million sets, including the projects that will be completed in 2009 and will be completed in 2013, and the majority of the newly started 10 million units in 2011 are still under construction. The project, together with more than 7 million sets of new construction last year, did not reduce the number of affordable housing under construction in China.

In addition to affordable housing, commercial housing sales have also shown signs of gradual recovery in the near future, which is expected to become another factor stimulating furniture consumption. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the real estate development climate index for November last year was 95.71, an increase of 1.15 points from the previous month. In terms of real estate sales, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in the first 11 months of 2012 was 91.705 million square meters, up 2.4% year-on-year; the sales of commercial housing was 535.26 billion yuan, up 9.1%, and the growth rate was faster than the previous month, indicating that the sales of commercial housing showed a gradual recovery. sign. The recovery of the real estate market will directly drive the furniture market to pick up.

3. Urbanization construction has spawned new furniture demand

On November 21, 2012, Li Keqiang, who was elected as the new member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee for less than a week at the First Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, clearly pointed out that reform is China's biggest dividend. In terms of the specific implementation form of reform, Li Keqiang elaborated on three dimensions and specific paths, one of which is to promote reform around urbanization.

On November 28, Li Keqiang said that China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries, but the development is still very uneven, especially the gap between urban and rural areas is wide, the gap is the potential, China's largest in the next few decades. The development potential lies in urbanization. This once again demonstrated his determination to promote China's urbanization. Li Keqiang also revealed that the relevant departments of the State Council are studying and formulating urbanization development plans to guide the urbanization construction work across the country. In the process of promoting urbanization, new demands will be generated for housing and furniture products, which is definitely good news for the furniture industry.

4. Modern Chinese family concept drives furniture consumption

Most of the Chinese families now have three generations of direct family structures. With the independent and modern thinking increasingly rooted in the hearts of the people, after a family has established a family, they hope to get rid of their dependence on their fathers and have their own housing. When children grow up, they also hope to have their own living space; while their parents are old, but their bodies Still healthy, like free and comfortable life, "three generations of the same family" is just a reunion during the festival, is an emotional need.

Therefore, for a family of three generations of direct structure, it is necessary to have three sets of houses. Now the house is too expensive, can not afford, does not mean that the rigid demand is reduced. As the real estate market enters a rational state, people with certain economic strength will buy housing, which in turn will drive furniture consumption.

5. Market shuffling promotes healthy development of the industry

Since the beginning of 2012, there has been a phenomenon of “shuffling” in the furniture market. A group of enterprises with weak strength and unregulated business have been eliminated; and the companies left behind by Dalang Taosha are some enterprises with strong strength and standardized operation.

The development of the market will be healthier and more rational, and consumer confidence will increase. In addition, after the market “shuffles”, the number of people who divide the “cake” is reduced, and each company has more “cakes”, which helps those excellent enterprises to become bigger and stronger.

6, the demand is good, there is support, the export will pick up and will continue

China is the world's largest furniture export trading country. Although the European market is still not improving, the demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia has increased. Coupled with the gradual recovery of the US real estate market, the furniture export situation has begun to improve.

According to statistics from China Customs, the total exports of furniture and parts in the first 10 months of last year reached US$39.381 billion, up 31.9% year-on-year, of which the export volume in October was US$4.283 billion; the export of furniture and parts in the first 11 months A total of 43.16 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.5%, of which November's exports in the month was 3.78 billion US dollars, a month-on-month decline. Huatai Securities believes that it is not unexpected that the growth rate of furniture exports has declined near the end of last year, but the US housing market continues to improve, and the good trend of furniture export recovery is also expected this year.

cold

- Opposition reasons: excessive expansion of the store, rising costs

1. Real estate effects can't be seen immediately

Although the furniture industry is a downstream industry of real estate, but the real estate is picking up, this effect will still take a while to the furniture industry. In the recent period, the “National Five Articles” that have been issued in various places have allowed the public to queue up for the purchase of houses before the introduction of the rules, and the enthusiasm for the issuance of the rules will be greatly reduced. In the furniture industry, there is a saying that "the property market is sneezing and the furniture is catching a cold." This means that the property market is closely linked to the furniture market. Under the influence of the sluggish real estate market, the furniture market is bound to be weak.

2. Excessive expansion of the store, excess demand

At present, the total area of ​​the stores of China's chain stores, Red Star Macalline, is about 6 million square meters, which exceeds the total area of ​​German home stores (5 million square meters). Actually, the total area of ​​its stores is more than 2 million square meters, and other stores with a total chain area of ​​about 1 million square meters are not rare.

The over-expansion of the store has led to a direct result of excess store sales. At present, the volume of furniture stores in China has greatly exceeded the market consumption capacity. In addition, the sales area of ​​China's first- and second-tier cities is also quite amazing: Beijing furniture store is about 4 million square meters, Shanghai and Shenzhen furniture stores are about 3 million square meters, and Xianghe, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Dongguan furniture stores are more than 2 million square meters... ... Almost all first- and second-tier cities have more furniture store capacity than they should have.

According to statistics, at present, the total area of ​​furniture stores in the country exceeds 40 million square meters. The industry has calculated an account: based on 10,000 square meters of annual sales of 100 million yuan, the current domestic market annual sales of 200 billion yuan, only 20 million square meters of the store is enough. This means that there are nearly 50% of the store's excess. The buyer market, which is too unbalanced, objectively contributes to consumption inertia and further shrinks the market.

3, operating costs rise, dealer pressure

Nowadays, with the rising cost of labor, rent, promotion and promotion, the profit margin of dealers is getting smaller and smaller. The chairman of a certain company in Shenzhen also reminded enterprises and dealers to have a psychological preparation for a protracted war. “From the purchaser’s salary, to the product transportation and logistics costs, to the store’s rent, it is almost twice as high as last year; the external market is sluggish, so can you earn a few dollars?” Said the business.

4, the ills of furniture companies are still

There are many small enterprises and various brands in the furniture industry. The independent research and development is not strong, the core competitiveness of the brand is lacking, and the homogenization is serious. All kinds of ills in the furniture industry have always existed, and it will not be solved in a short while. The various ills of furniture companies and the disorderly competition within the industry will only extend this winter time.

Shuffling: Not necessarily a good thing

Whether it is "pessimistic" or "optimistic", all the words mentioned a word: shuffle. As a downstream industry of real estate, where will China's real estate market go in 2013? This is the topic of greatest concern to Chinese real estate and related industry professionals. For the future prediction of the market, no expert has ever been able to make a final decision. There is a voice saying that the property market will pick up in 2013; there is a voice that the property market will collapse in 2013; there are also voices that 2013 is still in a downturn and will continue for a long time. According to industry analysts, under the influence of real estate policy regulation, sales factors such as sluggish sales and rising corporate costs have made manufacturers more competitive, and the reshuffle of the home industry is intensifying.

The rapid development of China's home furnishing industry, especially after nearly a decade of rapid expansion, has completed the development path of foreign countries for decades. However, at the same time of rapid development, many problems have also been exposed. Wang Linpeng, president of the Real Home Group, pointed out that the current industry is mixed, and there are very few companies that really put development on management and services. In the face of the already 2012, under the influence of real estate regulation, the industry will enter the reshuffle stage of the big waves.

Indeed, in response to the rapid development of the economy, people's level of improvement, consumer brand awareness is getting stronger and stronger, not only pay attention to the price of products, but also pay more attention to the choice of brands. The brand has undoubtedly increased the brand's shuffled chips. The industrialized furniture industry is 5-10 years behind home appliances and department stores, 80 years later than the international automotive industry. As long as someone has a home, there is furniture. Therefore, the furniture industry is not the end, but a new beginning.

According to the Guangdong Furniture Chamber of Commerce and the Guangdong Furniture Industry Research Institute jointly released the 2013 Guangdong furniture industry import and export situation report. In the first quarter of 2013, the physical quantity of Guangdong wooden furniture exports was 1,301,200, a decrease of 3.96% over the same period of the previous year. Compared with the previous two months, the growth rate decreased by 17.23%. The export volume of wooden furniture in Guangdong accounted for 30.52% of the national total; the export value was 1.301 billion US dollars, up 22.43% year-on-year, which was 29.57% lower than the growth rate of the previous two months. It accounts for 48.47% of the country.

China Light Industry Information Center released from January to February 2013, the total industrial output value of the furniture industry above the scale of the company reached 83.534 billion yuan, an increase of 15.65% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the wooden furniture manufacturing industry has completed a total of 51.640 billion yuan, accounting for 61.82%; the metal furniture manufacturing industry has completed 18.351 billion yuan, accounting for 21.97%; the bamboo and rattan furniture manufacturing industry has completed 1.437 billion yuan, accounting for 1.72%; plastic furniture The manufacturing industry has completed 1.196 billion yuan, accounting for 1.43%; other furniture manufacturing industry has completed 10.91 billion yuan, accounting for 13.06%.

Lengqing

In the past two years, the dark clouds have been shrouded in the heads of furniture. Going to the store and turning it around, you don't need to say it, you will naturally understand why you use the word "cold".

calm

In the past two years, the development of the furniture industry has not been repeated. For the furniture people who have been used to running on high-speed public prosecution for 20 years, this winter seems to be a bit long. Nowadays, the news of the property market is picking up. As a downstream industry, although there is a certain lag, the bright "spring" seems to be just around the corner.

In 2012, I searched the furniture industry for news about the furniture industry. From the mass media to the industry media, the full screens were “dismissed”, “closed”, “running”, “cold”, “plagiarized” and “defending rights”. Rent "transformation" ... and so on, and is widely reproduced. In fact, such a status quo is also the only way for the furniture industry to develop to this stage, which is due to the laws of nature. This is the pain of the furniture industry's continuous maturity, without sighing and sighing. You should calmly think about how you can become a "leftover" in the industry reshuffle.

Warm and self-aware

Whether it’s prosperous or the vicissitudes behind it, it’s like drinking water, knowing it. In this way, it is not for the topic, but it is only for the big economic laws of enterprises, stores and dealers.